Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Miami-Dade County Public Schools enrollment has substantially declined, dropping from more than 347,000 students to 326,279 in the past five years. The 2025-2026 school year marks a decline of over 13,000 students for M-DCPS, one of the largest single-year declines in district history. On Aug. 27, M-DCPS Superintendent Dr. Jose L. Dotres presented the reality of the districts’ low enrollment for the upcoming school year.

Each school year, Miami-Dade projects enrollment based on state funding using the Florida Education Finance Program. For the most part, the district has met its projected enrollment necessary for state funding, maintaining its schools, staff and programs. However, for the 2025-2026 school year, M-DCPS predicted a decrease of 5,000 students and lost an additional 8,000, resulting in a 4% decrease and over 13,000 student reduction total.

Granted public school funding in Florida and student enrollment go hand in hand, this decrease causes significant financial implications for the district.

One of the main factors contributing towards the decrease in M-DCPS enrollment is the shortage of newcomers from other countries entering the district. During the opening of schools in Aug. 2024, M-DCPS welcomed over 7,000 students compared to barely receiving 2,000 in Aug. 2025. On top of this, the number of newly arrived immigrant families fell from 7,193 to 1,847 within the past year. These are the largest numbers that impacted the drop in enrollment, directly influencing budget cuts.

“The pros of having smaller numbers of students is that there are more resources available to them as well as opportunities to personally connect with their teachers…The school environment would feel more personal and close, especially between the students. However, it would also mean that exposure to different cultures and mindsets would be limited. Having a big school also means having many diverse people to interact with and it has personally shaped me into a better person…Therefore, it is concerning less students are enrolling in M-DCPS,” senior Natalia Pacheco said.

Another major circumstance driving M-DCPS’ enrollment numbers down further is the aftermath of families in Miami leaving due to high costs of living. Reportedly between 2023 and 2024, 67,418 residents moved out of Miami-Dade to other areas of South Florida or different states altogether. This mass relocation was prompted by a 90% increase in housing costs since before the COVID-19 pandemic, making it difficult for residents to afford living in the city.

“I know someone who left Miami-Dade because of the overall cost of living and the lack of opportunities. They ended up moving to Orlando, where it was more affordable for them. Situations like this will continue to affect M-DCPS because as more families leave the area, schools will face declining enrollment, which can lead to less funding, fewer programs and potential school closures,” senior Adriana Muoz said.

In addition to the large departure of locals, M-DCPS is also facing the repercussions of a national decline in birth rates. As of 2025, the United States birth rate has reached an all-time low of 1.6 births per woman, indicating families are having less children on average. Moreover, the Kindergarten cohort decreased by 2,000 students in Miami-Dade, suggesting a smaller number of students entering the school system for years to come.

While investigating the departure of schools at a microlevel, the district board clarified two misconceptions about enrollment loss: students transferring to private and charter schools and no-shows. According to M-DCPS, numbers show a different story with only a 379 student increase in private and charter school enrollment, proving this is not necessarily having a large effect on the decline in public school enrollment.

“So last week we had a meeting with all the principals in the county, the superintendent, and members of his cabinet, and we were discussing the misconception of the data that had been shared…We know that the district county-wide had dropped enrollment [by] 13,000 students and that was due to various reasons. A lot of people thought it was due to charter [and private] schools when in all actuality, and here at Gables that [was] the case, there was under 1,000 students that had left to charter or private school which is a great testament to our school,” Principal Mr. Balboa said.

In terms of no-shows, Miami-Dade principals and administration personally called families to understand why their students were not attending school. These accounts help shape develop choice programs and reflect family needs. Compared to the 2024-2025 school years no-show rate of 1.4%, M-DCPS reduced no-shows from 25,000 at the start of this school year to 3,300 as of Aug. 27, lowering the rate to 1.1%.

“Coming from a local feeder pattern middle school at Ponce De Leon middle, one big push that I would always try to do was trying to retain our students. Anytime anyone wanted to transfer anywhere, even if they were moving out of the state, and this is a practice that I still do, I try to meet with the parent. I try to see what’s going on because maybe it’s something that we can work on…So a common practice that a lot of the principals do in the county, if not all of them, is we try to meet with the parents and we try to get them to stay in our system,” Principal Mr. Balboa said.

The culmination of these trends threatens M-DCPS budget used for essential programs, putting the quality of education for Miami-Dade students at risk.

To ensure that M-DCPS staff will be sustained, the district board intends to reduce hourly personnel, minimize overtime and restrict travel to downplay budget discrepancies. As a means of managing per-student budget loss, the attendance, boundary committee process will be applied when considering under enrollment, over enrollment and space in M-DCPS.

With M-DCPS enrollment declines driven by fewer newcomers, families relocating and low birth rates, the district is focused on stabilizing these numbers. Between Aug. 26 and 27, there was over 300 student registrations, demonstrating how increasing enrollments will continue to mitigate the matter. For now, the district board plans to continue tracking enrollment trends and preventing the reconfiguration of schools as they anticipate new student registrations throughout the year.

This story was originally published on CavsConnect on September 9, 2025.